Abstract:
A key measure of the earthquake problem in a country is the ratio of fatalities to population size. We propose that the new parameter earthquake fatality load per year objectively measures the level of the population suffering in seismically active countries, that is, it indicates the average annual cost in lives. We present a list of this new parameter for 35 seismically important countries with adequate data for this estimate. Among these countries, Ecuador, Lebanon, Haiti, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Portugal have experienced the greatest loads during the last five centuries. The earthquake fatality load decreases significantly as a function of time in the 18 countries with enough data for analysis. Major factors causing this may be improved resistance to shaking by the built environment, and migration of the rural population leaving weak buildings and occupying stronger ones in large cities.
Link to Open Access paper (Natural Hazards)
Abstract:
We have compiled a new catalogue of earthquake fatalities for the world, covering the period 856 BC to March 2022, listing 2795 reports. We estimate that the reporting of fatal earthquakes is complete for events with more than 16 fatalities since 1927. The total number of fatalities recorded is 8,336,526. 117 countries have reported at least one earthquake with one fatality or more. 77 and 52 countries have reported more than 100 and 1000 earthquake fatalities, respectively. Caution has to be exercised in estimating what earthquake disasters are in store for a given country because the 95 year period of high quality recording is about an order of magnitude shorter than return times of great earthquakes. Nevertheless, we introduce the earthquake potency for a country, defined as the sum of recorded fatalities divided by the number of earthquakes that it took to accumulate them, which equals the average earthquake disaster size in a given country, in units of fatalities per event. Potency is listed based on all known fatal earthquakes and also based on those since 1927. Both lists have their shortcomings, but provide estimates of what size of future earthquake disaster is likely in store for a particular country. For rescue purposes, it is important to realize that small earthquake, M 5 ± 0.5, can cause significant numbers of fatalities.
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